This broadcast was a bit rough, but the content is important. Enjoy.
TTISB 017 Civic Holidays
Labor Day
Work Stoppage 67 – Investigate Labor Day [length=10:15]
discussing the cruel irony of the government allowing unemployment benefits to run out for millions of workers on Labor Day.
Congressional Dish 238 – Thank You, Market Rate Racket
Floods, fires, abortion bans: Oh my! In this bonus thank you episode, hear Jen’s thoughts on this rough week in the United States, with some extended perspective on the end of the eviction moratorium from the perspective of a former corporate landlord.
- clip 1 2:41 Democrats haven’t been fighting hard for tenants
- clip 2 1:14 tax money intended to cover rent payments for those unemployed by COVID mostly hasn’t been disbursed
- clip 3 5:26 tenant story
UnusualWhales’s analysis of congressional trading records
https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate/congress
Source contains interactive candlestick charts, feedback on this topic from someone with more expertise
in finance/fintech would be welcome.
If you look at the interactive charts, the house members are VERY good at buying dips, and selling on rips/highs. Generally they are leading indicators, but because of the delay in when their transactions are reported, the data is backwards looking.
When looking at the Top 10 securities purchased in 2020, Microsoft was the top pick for many House Democrats, along with Amazon, Salesforce, Netflix and PayPal. Meanwhile, Republican Congressman Mark Green, alone, accounts for 99% of the stock purchases in oil and gas companies like USA Compression and Energy Transfer.
When pairing House trades with real world events, particularly pandemic-specific ones, here’s some notable events:
- The CARES Act was signed by Trump on March 27, 2020. The Act set aside $9.5 billion for vaccine development (ie. Operation Warp Speed announced on April 29). [To lay out a bit of a timeline:]
- March 18: Former Congressman Greg Gianforte (R) purchased up to $1 million in GlaxoSmithKline stocks (+25% at 2020 peak). The company eventually signed a contract with US Gov through Operation Warp Speed.
- March 19: Gianforte purchased up to $15,000 in Sanofi stocks (+37% at 2020 peak), manufacturer of hydroxychloroquine (pushed by Trump around this time) and later an Operation Warp Speed participant. Also, FDA gave emergency authorization to hydroxychloroquine on March 30.
- April 13: Congresswoman Virginia Foxx purchased up to $50,000 in GlaxoSmithKline stocks (+10% at 2020 peak). Another $15,000 on July 10 (+6.3% at 2020 peak).
- July 22: Congressmen Mo Brooks, Ed Perlmutter and Mike Conaway all bought Pfizer stocks in June/July right before the US gov signed a $1.95 billion vaccine contract
- July 29: US Gov announces $2.1 billion deal with Sanofi and GSK for vaccine development
- August 5: US Gov announces $1 billion COVID vaccine contract with Johnson & Johnson. Congressman Kevin Hern (sat on the House Committee on Budget) and Carol Miller (Oversight and Reform) purchased JNJ stocks in July
- Congress passed the COVID Relief Bill on December 21, 2020. Trump signed on Dec 29. Also included was funding for clean energy.
- October 28: Former Congresswoman Susan Davis purchased up to $50,000 in Canadian Solar Inc. (+64% at 2021 peak). Did not sell in 2020.
- October 28: Congressman Josh Gottheimer purchased up to $15,000 in Enphase Energy Inc. (+108% at 2021 peak). Did not sell in 2020.
- November 5: Congresswoman Katherine Clark purchased up to $30,000 in First Solar Inc. (+24% at 201 peak). Did not sell in 2020.
- All through 2020: Congressman Alan Lowenthal has dipped in and out of Sunrun for most of the year, but made additional purchases of up to $15,000 each time on October 13 (+48%) and November 12 (+81% at 2021 peak). Did not sell any Sunrun for the rest of 2020.
- December 22 (next day): House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s spouse purchases 25 Tesla leaps with a strike price of $500 and expiry March 18, 2022 (max amount estimated to be $1 million). Has not sold these yet.
- December 22 (next day): Congressman Gilbert Cisneros bought up to $100,000 in Tesla stocks (+37% at 2021 peak). Did not sell in 2020.
Numerous house members also trade options. This means they are using leveraged positions on leveraged information. Please go through the info yourself.
As of December 22nd stimulus was just approved on that day. On December 22’nd, Pelosi’s Husband purchased deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls. After Market close on December 22’nd, she voiced support for $2000 of stimulus after Donald Trump tweets the need for additional stimulus. Those same companies rally 5%, giving an instant +30 return, on Dec 23rd.
The post then gets a lot more technical
https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate
Focusing on stocks and options trades, it can be seen that in 2020 Senate Republican disclosures were over $200 million, followed by Democrats with around $35 million, and then there’s Independent Senator Angus King with just over $100,000. This is quite different from the House, where Democrats out-traded their Republican colleagues.
…
The biggest trades last year can be attributed to this former Georgia Senator and her husband. She was appointed to the Senate by Governor Brian Kemp in early 2020 after then Senator Johnny Isakson resigned due to health reasons. Loeffler used to be the CEO of Bakkt and her husband is Jeffrey Sprecher, currently CEO of Intercontinental Exchange ($ICE) and Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. Basically, her and her husband are as Wallstreet as one can be.
Note that Senator Loeffler was defeated by Raphael Warnock in the Georgia run-off elections in January 2021. However, she’s left the door open to running again in 2022.
In 2020, her family made HUGE ICE stock/options trades (up to $25 million per transaction, assuming maximum investment). Clearly, this skews the numbers.